Posts by buffalobuilt
Q2, 2024: A New Bull’s Eye
Growth, Inflation & Policy As of April 26, 2024 Stronger Economic Growth While still negative, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) is starting to recover, and the Conference Board no longer forecasts a recession in 2024. There are further signs of stronger economic growth. Final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) results confirmed that the U.S.…
Read MoreQ1, 2024
SUMMARY As of April 15, 2024 Equity markets concluded the first three months of 2024 on a strong note as the S&P 500 achieved new all-time highs. The small cap Russell 2000 ended March at its highest level since January 2022. With inflation remaining persistently above its stated 2% target, the Fed’s position may be…
Read MoreQ1, 2024: Balancing Act
Growth, Inflation & Policy As of January 24, 2024 Leading Economic Index Despite strong economic data, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) continues to signal a “short and shallow” recession in the first half of this year and a slowdown in future economic activity. This creates a volatile backdrop for stocks, as historical LEIs…
Read MoreQ4, 2023
SUMMARY As of January 12, 2024 Despite early 2023’s recession fears and banking crisis, the market rallied with U.S. large cap stocks up 26.3% and U.S. intermediate-term bonds up 5.5%, buoyed by moderating inflation. This year’s positives included a resilient U.S. consumer, a tight labor market, and a nascent artificial intelligence boom, although some negatives—including…
Read MoreQ4, 2023: Drained
Growth, Inflation & Policy As of October 23, 2023 Economic Activity The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) has been negative for 18 consecutive months and continues to signal a looming recession and subsequent slowdown in economic activity. However, estimates for the severity of the recession eased over the quarter, with the Conference Board forecasting a…
Read MoreQ3, 2023
Summary As of October 13, 2023 The S&P 500 ended September down 3.3%, reinforcing September’s reputation as the worst month of the year for stocks. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which ended the quarter down 3.2%, is down 15% over the past three years in the largest three-year decline in history. Strategic Petroleum Reserve…
Read MoreQ3, 2023: The Running of the Bulls (and Bears)
Growth, Inflation & Policy As of July 28, 2023 Leading Economic Indicators The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) is used to forecast future economic activity. Since 1988, the U.S. LEI has dropped below zero over a six-month period on ten occasions. On five of those occasions, the LEI has dropped below -4%, signaling a recession…
Read MoreQ2, 2023
Summary As of July 19, 2023 The first half of 2023 has been anything but ordinary—from a banking crisis in March and a near-miss with a U.S. debt default to the flurry of excitement in Artificial Intelligence and anything related to it. On the surface, U.S. stocks continued to push higher during the quarter. The…
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