Q2, 2022: A Nickel For Your Thoughts

Growth, Inflation & Policy SLOWING GDP GROWTH Growth is unquestionably decelerating, while inflation prints are seemingly perpetually overshooting. Coming into the year, we believed inflation would be the key driver of economic and capital-market returns. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has only served to intensify this critical dynamic and has put the Federal Reserve in a…

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Q1 2022

Summary For the second time in two years, the global economy was thrust into a crisis, first from a pandemic and then from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Commodity prices rose substantially as already-strained supply chains were further disrupted and the world tried to realign itself to friendly exporters. Even though the Russian ruble initially collapsed,…

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Q1, 2022: Candyland

Growth, Inflation & Policy SLOWING GDP GROWTH Growth is unquestionably decelerating, while inflation prints are becoming increasingly important. Should we see inflation accelerating from here, expect fireworks. If inflation however starts to decelerate, it could be a decent year for risk assets. While we are watching inflation as the primary driver of outcomes this year,…

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Q4 2021

Summary ​​Equity markets delivered positive returns in the final quarter while fixed income returns were flat. Due to an improving labor market and stubbornly high inflation levels, policymakers are set to reduce the unprecedented fiscal stimulus and unsustainable levels of monetary policy accommodation. ​​​​​​ Inflation became officially politicized when Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia cited…

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