Market Commentary

Summary As of October 13, 2023 The S&P 500 ended September down 3.3%, reinforcing September’s reputation as the worst month of the year for stocks. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which ended the quarter down 3.2%, is down 15% over the past three years in the largest three-year decline in history. Strategic Petroleum Reserve…

Summary As of July 19, 2023 The first half of 2023 has been anything but ordinary—from a banking crisis in March and a near-miss with a U.S. debt default to the flurry of excitement in Artificial Intelligence and anything related to it. On the surface, U.S. stocks continued to push higher during the quarter. The…

SUMMARY As of April 17, 2023 Both U.S. and international equity markets rallied in the last few days of March to end the month (and the quarter) with positive returns. As long-term interest rates stabilized, U.S. bonds recovered most of February’s losses, ending the quarter at January-month-end levels. Despite a barrage of economic and policy…

SUMMARY As of January 18, 2023 As inflation showed signs of slowing in the fourth quarter, both stocks and bonds recovered some of their losses from previous quarters, and most assets ended the quarter with positive returns. Despite a relatively good final quarter, 2022 was one of the worst years in history for markets, including…

Summary In the first half of the quarter, stocks and bonds rallied on the hopes of a Fed policy pivot, but a sharp reversal in the second half brought new highs for bond yields and new lows in stocks for the year. Investors reacted especially negatively to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s August speech at…

Summary The past six months have been the worst start to a year for a traditional “60/40” portfolio since 1932 when the U.S. economy was in the Great Depression. Commodities and energy stocks served as rare bright spots in the first half of 2022, up 18% and 32%, respectively. After being dovish for most of…

Summary For the second time in two years, the global economy was thrust into a crisis, first from a pandemic and then from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Commodity prices rose substantially as already-strained supply chains were further disrupted and the world tried to realign itself to friendly exporters. Even though the Russian ruble initially collapsed,…

Summary ​​Equity markets delivered positive returns in the final quarter while fixed income returns were flat. Due to an improving labor market and stubbornly high inflation levels, policymakers are set to reduce the unprecedented fiscal stimulus and unsustainable levels of monetary policy accommodation. ​​​​​​ Inflation became officially politicized when Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia cited…