Archive for January 2024
Q1, 2024: Balancing Act
Growth, Inflation & Policy As of January 24, 2024 Leading Economic Index Despite strong economic data, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) continues to signal a “short and shallow” recession in the first half of this year and a slowdown in future economic activity. This creates a volatile backdrop for stocks, as historical LEIs…
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SUMMARY As of January 12, 2024 Despite early 2023’s recession fears and banking crisis, the market rallied with U.S. large cap stocks up 26.3% and U.S. intermediate-term bonds up 5.5%, buoyed by moderating inflation. This year’s positives included a resilient U.S. consumer, a tight labor market, and a nascent artificial intelligence boom, although some negatives—including…
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