Q2, 2024: A New Bull’s Eye

Growth, Inflation & Policy As of April 26, 2024 Stronger Economic Growth While still negative, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) is starting to recover, and the Conference Board no longer forecasts a recession in 2024. There are further signs of stronger economic growth. Final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) results confirmed that the U.S.…

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Q1, 2024: Balancing Act

Growth, Inflation & Policy As of January 24, 2024 Leading Economic Index Despite strong economic data, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) continues to signal a “short and shallow” recession in the first half of this year and a slowdown in future economic activity. This creates a volatile backdrop for stocks, as historical LEIs…

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Q4, 2023: Drained

Growth, Inflation & Policy As of October 23, 2023 Economic Activity The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) has been negative for 18 consecutive months and continues to signal a looming recession and subsequent slowdown in economic activity. However, estimates for the severity of the recession eased over the quarter, with the Conference Board forecasting a…

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Q3, 2023: The Running of the Bulls (and Bears)

Growth, Inflation & Policy As of July 28, 2023 Leading Economic Indicators The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) is used to forecast future economic activity. Since 1988, the U.S. LEI has dropped below zero over a six-month period on ten occasions. On five of those occasions, the LEI has dropped below -4%, signaling a recession…

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