Market Outlook

Growth, Inflation & Policy As of January 24, 2024 Leading Economic Index Despite strong economic data, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) continues to signal a “short and shallow” recession in the first half of this year and a slowdown in future economic activity. This creates a volatile backdrop for stocks, as historical LEIs…

Growth, Inflation & Policy As of October 23, 2023 Economic Activity The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) has been negative for 18 consecutive months and continues to signal a looming recession and subsequent slowdown in economic activity. However, estimates for the severity of the recession eased over the quarter, with the Conference Board forecasting a…

Growth, Inflation & Policy As of July 28, 2023 Leading Economic Indicators The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) is used to forecast future economic activity. Since 1988, the U.S. LEI has dropped below zero over a six-month period on ten occasions. On five of those occasions, the LEI has dropped below -4%, signaling a recession…