SUMMARY
As of January 12, 2024
- Despite early 2023’s recession fears and banking crisis, the market rallied with U.S. large cap stocks up 26.3% and U.S. intermediate-term bonds up 5.5%, buoyed by moderating inflation.
- This year’s positives included a resilient U.S. consumer, a tight labor market, and a nascent artificial intelligence boom, although some negatives—including heightened geopolitical tensions and an extended manufacturing slump—persisted.
- Although U.S. retail sales were strong, credit card usage rose rapidly, and U.S. government deficit spending reached record levels, which raised concerns about fiscal health.
- ‘Balancing act’ defines 2024’s outlook. The Fed is delicately managing inflation versus recession risks, while the Treasury must navigate rolling massive amounts of government debt amidst reduced foreign demand. Investors, facing wide-ranging scenarios—from significant downside risks to an economic reacceleration—must remain humble and nimble.
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This material is provided to advisors by Mount Yale Investment Advisors, LLC and contains market commentary from third-party sources it believes to be reliable. However, Mount Yale has not independently verified or otherwise investigated such information and makes no guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness. In the event any of the assumptions used herein prove not to be true, results may vary substantially. All investments entail risks. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses and cannot be invested indirectly. The information contained herein constitutes general information and is not directed to, designed for, or individually tailored to, any particular investor or potential investor. It is not intended to be a client-specific suitability or best interest analysis or recommendation, an offer to participate in any investment, or a recommendation to buy, hold or sell securities.