Market Outlook

Q2, 2023: Tick Tok

Growth, Inflation & Policy

As of April 23, 2023

GDP & Inflation

  • Over the quarter, inflation continued to tick lower. Despite the recent banking system instability and the collapse of two large banks in the U.S. in mid-March, the Federal Reserve has continued to hike rates.
  • The most recent rate hike highlights the predicament that the Fed has put itself in—by waiting too long to address inflation, it must now decide whether to tame inflation by pushing the U.S. economy into a recession or risk a 1970s-type resurgence with potentially ruinous consequences for the consumer and markets in the longer term.
  • The University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey shows a recent acceleration in inflation expectations. The longer the Fed takes to bring inflation under control and the more these higher inflation expectations become entrenched in the minds of consumers, the more damage could be done to markets..

The Fed Discount Window

  • In response to the banking system instability and to reduce risk of further contagion, in mid-March the Federal Reserve eased access to its Discount Window by valuing the collateral received in exchange for liquidity at par instead of the usual practice of imposing a haircut.
  • Banks have since made extensive use of the Discount Window, borrowing more than $152 billion from the Fed between March 11 and March 15.
  • The last time banks made such extensive use of the Discount Window was during the Global Financial Crisis, when approximately $111 billion was borrowed at its peak.

For additional market insights, download our complete market outlook report.

This material is provided to advisors by Mount Yale Investment Advisors, LLC and contains market commentary from third-party sources it believes to be reliable. However, Mount Yale has not independently verified or otherwise investigated such information and makes no guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness.  In the event any of the assumptions used herein prove not to be true, results may vary substantially. All investments entail risks. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.  Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses and cannot be invested indirectly.  The information contained herein constitutes general information and is not directed to, designed for, or individually tailored to, any particular investor or potential investor.  It is not intended to be a client-specific suitability or best interest analysis or recommendation, an offer to participate in any investment, or a recommendation to buy, hold or sell securities.

Subscribe to our Insights


Download Print Friendly PDF