Market Outlook

Q2, 2021: Throw the Confetti


Growth, Inflation & Policy

Growth Snapback

U.S. real GDP growth is expected to have dropped 2.4% year-over-year in Q4 and 3.5% for the full year. It is expected to bounce back by 5.2% in 2021 (Bloomberg).
The significant damage to the private sector and fact that fiscal multipliers are generally negative, especially in highly indebted countries, means that real (inflation-adjusted) growth is going to be become increasingly harder to achieve.

Inflation Trending Higher

While current inflation is relatively low, long-term inflation expectations have continued to trend higher. The 10-year TIPS-implied inflation rate is currently 2.1%, near a 7-year high.
Economic slack, continued technology adoption and excessive debt levels will act as a damper on inflation until MMT-inspired “helicopter money” becomes ongoing policy.
On balance, we expect inflation to trend higher in fits and starts (higher lows and highs) in coming years.

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