- For the second time in two years, the global economy was thrust into a crisis, first from a pandemic and then from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
- Commodity prices rose substantially as already-strained supply chains were further disrupted and the world tried to realign itself to friendly exporters.
- Even though the Russian ruble initially collapsed, it has since rebounded to pre-invasion levels, which could lengthen the crisis and necessitate harsher and more protracted financial sanctions.
- The combination of much higher commodity prices and rising bond yields have increased tail risks and will make it challenging for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy without causing an economic slowdown.
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